A swing low is a low in a certain currency. Typically trading volume in a foreign currency will be negatively linked to that country’s currency. In general, lower volumes equate to lower volatility in the currency.
A low swing low is a good indicator as it will be a negative correlation between volume and volatility.
How do you know there is a swing low?
This is a great question. If it turns out a currency swing low is actually due, then you will likely have a low swing low within 24 hours.
Do you have indicators for buying currencies?
Yes for every day of the week, at both 5:00 AM and 10:30 PM EST.
No for Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays or Saturdays, Sundays and Mondays.
No for the first Tuesday of the month/all subsequent weeks.
How do you predict an upcoming currency swing low?
While we cannot predict a specific currency swing low, there are several trading patterns that we are watching to make sure we have a chance at a favorable swing low.
We are watching for:
Stimulus (i.e.: lower interest rates, higher interest rate spreads)
Exchange Rate Volatility (e.g. EUR/USD)
Interest Rate Fears (e.g.: negative spreads)
Trading volume (in the currency) for that currency
Market Volume (in the currency)
How will these swing lows affect the S&P 500®?
These swings will increase the risk to the Dow and S&P 500®, as they are moving in the direction of such swing lows. If you see a low swing low within 48 hours, then there is a high chance your dollar amount will move higher compared to other currencies.
It is important to remember that the S&P 500 is a proxy for the global economy. Any currency movements in the S&P 500 are only temporary. For every currency swing low we see in the market, there has already been gains in other currencies. All you need to know is that we see the S&P 500 move up over and over again (often in a negative correlation with the S&P 500).
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